Central Illinois Business Magazine
NOT SO FAST          September 2010

Day of the Department Store


Conventional wisdom says department stores are dinosaurs. They're supposedly unable to thrive against discounters like Wal-Mart, specialty stores like Gap, or web-only retailers like Amazon.

But this year, the three chains that own 45 percent of U.S. department stores are suddenly hot. Revenue at stores open at least a year is up 4.5 percent compared with 3.3 percent for all retailers. Part of the reason is because they had such a lousy 2009, when revenue fell 5.9 percent. But it's also better than 2007 when sales rose just 0.2 percent on average.

Department stores are benefiting from changes in strategies. Macy's is better matching its offerings with local tastes, while all three chains are offering more items that can't be found elsewhere.

Citi analyst Deborah Weinswig has "Buy" ratings on Macy's, Kohl's and J.C. Penney. One reason is that 21 percent of consumers surveyed say they plan to do their school shopping at department stores this year, up from 18 percent last year. The July-September back-to-school shopping season can account for up to 35 percent of a retailer's annual profits.

Penny pinchers should note that these aren't the cheapest stocks out there. Macy's and J.C. Penney trade above the S&P 500 average price-earnings ratio of 15. Kohl's is a bit under. And not all department stores are good buys. Not a single analyst recommends Sears.



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